Fiscal Fail: Government Agencies Plan Few Significant Changes For January, Despite Cliff Hype

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Fiscal Cliff: Obama Calls On Congress To Pass Scaled-Down Package (VIDEO)

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Obama On Fiscal Cliff: After Abrupt GOP Move, President Vows To Press Ahead Toward Solution

US President Barack Obama speaks during a holiday reception for the diplomatic corps on December 19, 2012 at the State Department in Washington, DC. AFP PHOTO/Mandel NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images) Get Politics Alerts:Sign Up React:Important
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House Republicans Expected To Vote On Fiscal Cliff Bill Thursday

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Fiscal Cliff Agreement Nearing On Capital Gains And Dividends Rate Hikes: Sources

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Fiscal Cliff Language Silenced By School Murders As Deadline Looms

House of Representatives Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) (2nd R) talks to reporters with (L-R) Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) and Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID) after the House passed the STEM Jobs Act November 30, 2012 in Washington, DC. The act would allow foreign students who graduated from U.S. colleges and universities with degrees in science and technology to obtain green cards to become permanent legal residents. President Barack Obama said he would n Get Politics Alerts:Sign Up Follow:  Congress,  Video, Newtown Elementary School Shooting, School Shooting, Fiscal Cliff, Fiscal Cliff Language, Newtown, Reuters, Sandy Hook Elementary School Shooting,Politics News #news_entries #ad_sharebox_260x60 img

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Viewpoint: US fiscal cliff is a false fear for stocks

The US fiscal cliff battle drags on. Taxes will rise on 1 January - investors fear if a deal isn't reached in time, higher taxes will cause a recession and bear market. It's a false fear, and false fears are always bullish.

First, the "fiscal cliff" is fake. Politicians made it; they can move it. The cliff first loomed in 2010 and politicians, fearful of angry constituents, kicked it past 2012 elections. They can do it again past 2014 - same logic. Even if there's no deal by year-end, they can delay implementation, by a month or two or 17. It's up to them! They did it in 2011 - they delayed the payroll tax holiday expiration by two months to buy time to compromise on a longer extension. These deadlines are political, fake, and can be moved.

And they want to compromise - particularly Democrats. They have 20 Senate seats up for election in 2014 and Republicans just 13. And nine of those seats are in vulnerable states which Democrats took from Republicans in 2008. Those seats can easily flip back. Democrats don't want to face voters angry over taxes.

Even if there's no deal and taxes rise, there's a vast history of tax rate moves in the US, UK and globally and no evidence that rate moves - up or down - are predictive for immediate future economic or market direction. No recession I can find was ever caused by a marginal tax increase. I don't like higher taxes, but not because they cause recessions. Provably, they don't.

How do hikes affect stocks?

As for stocks, in the US there have been 27 major income tax rate changes since 1928 - 15 cuts and 12 hikes. (I use the US for its longer data history, but it's the same in the UK and globally.) What did shares do after? Overwhelmingly, no matter whether taxes were cut or hiked, shares rose - 70.4% of the time. After 10 of the cuts, shares were positive 12 months later. Shares fell after just five cuts, which means shares were twice as likely to rise as fall after a tax cut.

That doesn't surprise you. What surprises you is shares were up 12 months following nine tax hikes, but fell after just three hikes, i.e., shares were three times as likely to rise after a tax hike, the opposite of what most think. People automatically assume tax hikes weigh on shares, but history and evidence don't support that. In fact, the reverse!

More amazing are capital gains tax (CGT) moves. Since 1928, there have been six cuts and nine hikes - 87.7% of the time, regardless of CGT rate direction, shares were positive 12 months later. Shares rose, five to one, after CGT cuts, but shares rose eight to one after hikes. Some may view that and form a new myth, believing, perversely, shares like tax increases. No. All it means is shares always and everywhere rise much more than fall over time.

Then, too, tax policy is inherently local and global factors matter much more. Tax rate moves are near meaningless for shares. But the fear is bullish - when expected disaster doesn't arrive, that positive surprise can boost shares, such as pharmaceuticals giant Pfizer (PFE).

Pfizer has a prodigious range of top-notch brand names, and a stream of new products will capture growth from an ageing developed-world demographic, plus new emerging middle classes overseas - all wrapped in a classically cheap stock.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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Republicans Float Fiscal Cliff Fallback Plan As Deadline Looms: Reports

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Fiscal Cliff Poll Shows Strong GOP Support For Raising Taxes On Wealthy

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K-12 Education May Not Benefit From Brighter Fiscal Outlook

President Barack Obama pauses as he speaks to the media during a visit with high school English teacher Tiffany Santana, left, and others, Thursday, Dec. 6, 2012, in Falls Church, Va. Get Education Alerts:Sign Up React:Amazing
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Obama Fiscal Cliff Deal: President 'Optimistic' On Reaching Agreement

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Mitch McConnell Fundraising Off Fiscal Cliff Negotiations

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Infosys will miss its revenue prospects for fiscal year?

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Customer suspensions, slope-downs in a few large projects, delays in big deal closures and longer-than-expected client shutdown due to Hurricane Sandy, especially in the manufacturing industry, can lead to a threat to outlook, said a UBS note.

Even reports by brokerages Nomura and Barclays said that there is a risk for the organic growth of the company guidance based on recent conversations with Infosys CEO SD Shibulal and CFO Rajiv Bansal. Shutdown of influence in the industry, challenges in BFSI vertically and delays in decision-making are reasons cited by these brokerages for a possible miss on earnings guidance also.

UBS said it is surprised by potential cut, but fears his own revenue outlook prediction for company at 3.8 percent can be hurt as the effects of hurricane had Sandy not processed.

"Our conversation with Infosys reinforces our concerns on short term press guidance. This is likely to impact stock price about the near future, but we see limited downside from current levels, given the low expectations and cheaper valuations, "said the UBS the note.

Nomura said the possibility of an organic revenue growth forecasts cut in the third quarter of the current fiscal year remains high. It prefers companies with current business momentum as HCL Technologies, Cognizant Technology Solutions and Tata Consultancy Services.

UBS, both preserved "neutral" rating on Nomura stock of Infosys. Shares of Infosys fell 0.6 percent.

Indexing of the NSE has fallen 2.73 percent in the last two days after a Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. filing with the SEC concerns about its revenue outlook to 2013.

With inputs from Reuters

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Defense contractors seek fiscal Relief, budget Busting tax breaks Cliff at the same time

U.s. Navy deck crew members stand for a F/A-18 fighter jet on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington. Defense contractors say the fiscal cliff may cost jobs and security at risk. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung) Business Alerts: sign up get react: inspirational
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There is probably no group of companies more concerned about is about the "fiscal" Cliff of tax increases and budget cuts due to take effect next month than defense contractors. The cliff is strongly aimed at inflicting pain on the industry, with $ 500 billion in cuts to government defence spending over the next ten years, a process called for "target

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Obama remains firmly on ' Fiscal Cliff ' amid Republican disorder

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Jim DeMint seems determined to John Boehner Agita About fiscal Cliff negotiations

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Indian execs to see modest 9% hike in salaries this fiscal

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James Marshall Crotty: Why Republicans are in the driver's seat on fiscal Cliff negotiations

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John Boehner fiscal Cliff conversations: ' We're nowhere ' (VIDEO)

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Rush Limbaugh: ' Democrat ' orgasm happens when We go about fiscal Cliff

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